Macroeconomic Term Paper (U,S Inflation)

This is a university level term paper. The topic chosen is inflation in the U.S, I have attached a copy of my research so far as well as the guidelines.
MCGILL UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 330D (Section 02, CRN 1672)
MACROECONOMIC THEORY (MAJORS), 2015-16

TERM PAPER SPECIFICATIONS
An important part of this macroeconomics course is the writing of a term paper on a macroeconomics topic.

TOPIC:
Select a macroeconomic variable for a country (you choose the variable and the country) and explain its determination, using macroeconomics analysis learnt in the course and data for at least 25 years ending in 2015. [Note that the last year which your study must encompass is 2015, unless you obtain prior written permission from me. This permission is only given if you can show that the relevant data for 2015 is not available for your chosen country]. Use quarterly data, if it is available.
OTHER TOPICS: Your topic and its format must meet the above specifications. For any variations away from it, you must have my written approval before the end of the Fall term. Note that if your paper does not fit the specified parameters for it and you did not get my written approval (e.g., for a topic, length, etc.) outside the parameters, you will get a reduced grade and quite likely a zero grade on your submission, without a chance at rewriting.

Students can on an individual basis select a topic for their country of choice and collect the data on their own. Alternatively, they can collect the data and other information as members of a group. In the latter case, if a group chooses a common country, each student must select a specific topic, different from that of the other members of the group. For example, a group could select China as the country and a particular student could study the consumption function in it, while another chooses to study inflation in it. Or the group could select inflation as a common topic and each member of the group would select a different country to study its inflation rate.

Common sources of online data:
i. CANSIM (for Canadian data)
ii. International Financial Statistics (IFS), published by the IMF. This is the best source to check first.
iii. Main Economic Indicators, published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). www.oecd.org/statistics
iv. UN World Tables.
v. Bank for International Settlements, especially for data on financial variables, balance of payments and exchange rates.
vi. Economist Intelligence Unit's country and other studies and data tables.
vii. Data from national sources such as the country's national Income and expenditure accounts, labour market reports, consumer reports, and so on.
Before you commit to a country/topic, be sure to check that you will have access to the needed data.
The data must cover a period of 25 years or more ending in 2013 (inclusive). If your data is only available for a shorter period, end me your request by e-mail, specifying your chosen topic and country, and the problem with the availability of the data and the period you intend to use. If I agree, I will reply to your message.

ORGANISATION OF THE TERM PAPER:
Each paper submitted must reflect the student's own effort and knowledge. Each paper must have seven parts:
1. Introduction: Here you will specify your topic. An example is the growth rate of GDP in Canada. It will also specify your time period and explain why you chose this topic (i.e. why is it interesting and important to you.).
2. Dependent variable: Focusing on your chosen dependent variable, present the empirical information on it in the form of data and time-series graphs and/or scatter diagrams, depending on what is more appropriate or useful for the topic chosen. Explain trends in the data and highlight distinctive episodes in it.
3. Theoretical analysis. This part of your case study will be a succinct application of the relevant theory or theories that explain the determination of your chosen dependent variable. Decide on the main explanatory variables. Use at least 3 or 4.
4. Interpretation and explanation.
In this part, present the data or/and graphs related to your explanatory variables. You may want to graph each of these against your dependent variable.
Use the data on the explanatory variables and the relevant macroeconomic theory to explain the patterns in the data on the dependent variable. Do they provide a good explanation? If not, were there other -- possibly non-economic events -- which were also important?
If you know how to use regression analysis, you can use a statistical software package in your analysis. If you do so, use multiple regressions. Mention in the paper which software you used. However, the use of regressions is not a required element of the term paper.
5. Conclusions.
6. References. A detailed list of your data sources together with the references (including your textbook) you have used and cited in the paper is to be included. You must use a standard format for punctuation and presentation of each reference. You can see the format in any journal in economics or that in your textbook.
7. Data appendix. All the data you used for your analysis is to be provided in tables and must list sources, including electronic addresses and file names or web references. In general, download your data from Internet sources, using Excel.

LENGTH and FORMAT: Papers are to have a maximum length of 10 pages, double-spaced (excluding graphs and tables); font size 12 points and paper size 8.5" by 11" with 1" margins. Do not deviate from these specifications.
As part of your preparation for your paper, you should learn a spreadsheet package such as Excel and a word processing package such as MS Word. Ability to use a statistical software package would also be useful, but is not required for this term paper.

DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION OF THE TERM PAPER (HARD COPY):
You must submit your paper in hard copy by 4.00 p.m. on or before Monday, 8 February, 2016. You can hand it to me at the end of any class prior to this deadline, or put it in my mail box in the economics department office (L 443) by 4.00 p.m. on Monday, 8 February, 2016. Papers cannot be submitted by e-mail or in any form other than hard copy.

SUBMISSION DEADLINE: Monday, 8 February , 2014, latest time: 4.00 p.m. in my mail box in l443, or slid under my door in L525.

Recommendations:
(A) Decide on your topic and collect the data by the end of the first term.
(B) Plan to finish the draft of your paper two weeks in advance of the deadline.
(C) Plan to finish and submit your paper one week earlier than the deadline.
Late submissions:
? Submissions after the deadline will carry an automatic penalty of 20% of the grade on the paper per week or part of each week.
? The penalty for submissions after the deadline is never waived, except possibly for very serious illnesses over several (i. e., more than one) weeks just prior to the submission deadline. If you have a medical reason, attach to your paper a medical note from a doctor, specifying both the illness and its duration. With such a medical note, a maximum delay in submission of one week will be granted.
? If you do not submit the term paper, the weight on the final exam (not on the tests) will be proportionately and automatically increased. [You do not need to submit a formal request for this to happen.]

Failure to submit a paper:
If you do not submit the term paper, its weight of 20% in the course grade will be transferred to the final exam.

Plagiarism: DO NOT DELIBERATELY OR INADVERTENTLY COMMIT PLAGIARISM.
Students are warned that they must not plagiarise. They must not submit any writing or part of any paper which has been copied - even though translated from/into another language - from other sources, or is wholly or partly the work of another person, or, even though the student's own work, has been submitted by the student in any other course. In cases of suspected plagiarism, the McGill Code of Student Conduct and Disciplinary Procedures imposes penalties and a special procedure that requires referral of the case to the Associate Dean for a formal determination.
A good procedure for not inadvertently committing plagiarism is to read and understand your source material, close it and then proceed to develop and write your own notes from your memory. If you have quotations, you must put the copied material in quotation marks and specify the relevant page numbers from the original. You must list the references used at the end of the paper.